In response to an article where a writer, Oreoluwa Olaleye compared Tinubu to Xi Jinping of China, I think the comparison, though encouraging, missed the mark. And so I am exploring an alternative.
Tinubu has little in comparison with Xi, but can be compared to another Chinese leader, Deng Xiaoping.
Both Deng and Tinubu are connected by the guts and ruthlessness they showed in their respective reforms and promises of the future, despite opposition, and despite the groaning of the masses.
What truly connects Deng Xiaoping and Bola Tinubu is a kind of brutal, calculated courage—the willingness to look at a broken system and say, "We will burn the house down to rebuild it." And the sheer audacity to ignore opposition and risk their political power on the road to their respective reforms.
When Deng came to power in the late '70s, China was starving, politically paralysed by Mao's madness, and economically a joke. His solution? Reform and Opening-up. It was radical surgery.
He didn't gently massage the system; he took an axe to the Iron Rice Bowl—that sacred Maoist promise of a job and welfare for life.
He removed the system that fed the central government elites and inefficient state-owned enterprises at the expense of national efficiency and citizen welfare by introducing market forces.
Bola Tinubu, on the other hand, came in 2023, when Nigeria was drowning in debt, the Naira was a fantasy, the fuel subsidy was the biggest corruption black hole in the world, and the country was drifting dangerously on the edge of bankruptcy.
His response is Deng-level blunt: Subsidy Gone. Forex Unified. It was pure, unexpected economic shock therapy. Both the rich and the poor felt the impact.
People thought it was a joke. Perhaps with a bit of pressure, he will back down. Aftwr all, no President had ever done this before. So it can't happen.
But Tinubu had made up his mind. Not even his speechwriter saw it coming as this was not included in the speech. He stuck to his guns even as more people suffered. He maintained that the reform is necessary to save the future.
Labour dared him, workers threatened strikes, and the cabals hoarded goods and created inflation that inflicted massive suffering on people. Even many of his supporters threatened to vote him out and turned to his fierce critics. Tinubu was unbending. He surged ahead with his reforms.
A similar response was encountered during Deng's reforms. The introduction of market mechanisms and the decentralisation of power led to a period of intense ideological and political struggle, with conservative Party hardliners and economic planners resisting the pace and direction of the reforms.
Deng had to use great political skill and patience, culminating in his famous 1992 Southern Tour, to consolidate and accelerate the market-oriented policies against those who feared they would diminish the Party's control or stray too far from socialism. Incidentally, Tinubu has been deploying his political skills to navigate the terrain.
Both leaders basically told their people, “The pain you feel now is the price for the future we’re building.”
Deng's reforms were a chaotic cocktail. He allowed private businesses—a capitalist heresy!—and created Special Economic Zones (SEZs) where foreigners could come in and use cheap Chinese labour to manufacture. This created massive, immediate inflation as controlled prices were let loose.
Under Deng, people’s life savings were wiped out. Inequality exploded between the thriving coastal zones and the poor interior. It was a miserable time, but Deng's genius was that he simultaneously unleashed the farmers with the Household Responsibility System, ensuring that the majority of the population (rural folk) got a quick, massive boost in food production, providing a crucial social cushion.
Now look at Tinubu. He throws the Naira to the market wolves and yanks the fuel subsidy that the average Nigerian sees as the only thing they benefit from.
The impact is almost instantaneous: food prices rocketed because transport costs exploded, and the cost of everything imported—from machinery to medicine—doubles, then triples.
Unlike Deng, who had a huge agrarian cushion, Tinubu’s shock landed on an already fragile, import-dependent economy with virtually no social safety net. The suffering today in Nigeria is arguably more acute, hitting the urban poor with the full force of hyper-inflation immediately, without the benefit of a pre-built industrial base to absorb the shock. He also had to empower capitalists like Dangote et al as these industries play vital roles in his economic reforms. Tinubu is a free market apostle and as such, capitalists are smiling to the bank while supporting the critical elements of his reforms.
Politically, there is also an interesting similarity between Tinubu and Deng.
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Bola Deng was isolated twice during the Mao era only to return to become the "Architect of Modern China". Tinubu also faced isolation in his own party and survived two major political events that could have buried him politically. When PDP raided the South West and swept away all but him as the Lagos Governor. The second during Buhari tenure when the Apc cabal worked hard to bury and oust him. In both, he subsequently triumphed and still came to emerge as President after a hard-fought Primary and election.
Politically, both are pragmatic and in control of their structures. The only difference between that Deng operated a unitary system while Tinubu operated under a multi-party system. Yet, Tinubu remain the godfather of politics.
But Tinubu is no Xi.
The core argument of the writer is comparing Xi with Tinubu. I disagree with this, and here is my reason.
The only relationship Tinubu will have with Xi in comparison is that, if he plays his ball well, Nigeria’s next leader may be a Xi.
Just as Xi took over from Deng's predecessors and built on the reforms which had prepared the land for prosperity before he came, Nigeria may be lucky to have a similar visionary, just as it happened in Lagos where the successive governors after Tinubu built on his Lagos reform to transform the state into an economic giant.
Deng started the race, but Xi is the one obsessed with winning the technological championship.
Deng was pragmatic: “Catch the mice.” He let foreign money and technology flood in.
Xi is strategic and nationalistic: “We make our own mouse traps and sell them to everyone else.”
And my own interest: Xi is empowering engineering with deliberate state-level purpose—massive funding for chip design, AI, green energy and research.
Tinubu, on the other hand, focuses almost entirely on fiscal correction. Banking capitalisation, and attracting FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), risk having their market reforms weaken local engineering and innovation in the short term.
This may leave Nigeria vulnerable to foreign technologies, global economic meltdown and at the mercy of foreign producers with their attendant imported inflation.
When the Naira crashes, local manufacturers who rely on imported components—the lifeblood of modern engineering—suffer immense pain.
Worse, the brutal inflation fuels the Japa Syndrome, bleeding out Nigeria’s best engineers and doctors.
Tinubu is the Deng of Fiscal Discipline. He is correcting a fatal distortion. But he is not the Xi of Strategic Innovation:
The country, has no policy targeted at national technological self-sufficiency. Not a single policy is targeted at harnessing Nigerian engineering talents. To the contrary, however, he depends on foreign expertise and investments. Though we hope this change will come soon.
Admittedly, there is a weak policy aiming to address this by increasing the local content in engineering contracts and procurement, it remains a developing story. One will have to wait till the end of his tenure to conclude whether they eventually work or not.
Similarly, the Tinubu administration, through the Minister of Communication, has been encouraging local AI. But this is still at a teething stage with little information on how much it has actually achieved.
The ultimate question is: Will Tinubu's reforms, like Deng's, eventually stabilise the economy and lay a foundation for the great industrial leap? Or will the immediate, unmitigated suffering and brain drain prevent Nigeria from ever consolidating the gains and moving from an "opening up" phase to a "strategic innovation" phase?
We can only find the answer at the end of his tenure as his story is still being written... It must be noted that Deng Spent 11 years while Tinubu is just in his second year. So a lot can or may change before the end of his tenure.
For now, Nigeria should begin to search for their Xi among the younger generation if they hope to emulate China's achievements.
-Wizard of Kalamakato
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